Back in December we published an article asking if Big Tobacco was finally sounding the death knell for traditional cigarettes. A new report released this week seems to further cement this fact.

A new predictive model looks at a number of possible scenarios involving smoking and electronic cigarettes over a 50 year period, this involves predictions including what would happen if e-cigs weren’t on the market and the current trends in vaping and smoking.

Woman Holding Cigarette whilst Reading


It looks at the way consumers use these products, habits of current and ex-smokers, past trends, the number of deaths due to smoking related diseases and how the overall population behaves in regards to smoking and vaping.

This does have its limitations. It does not look at the lowered risk for ‘dual users’, those who use vaping to cut down the amount of traditional cigarettes they use. That being said, after all this data was looked at the results were overwhelmingly positive for vaping.

By 2050, the 32% of smokers in the UK who would have continued to smoke, will have switched to electronic cigarettes.

These results further back up the 2016 study by the Cochrane Review who concluded that e-cigarettes do help people stop smoking.

Man snapping Giant Cigarette


For vapers this is fantastic news. But would you be surprised if I told you that this study was carried out by Dr James Murphy, Head of Reduced Risk Substantiation at British American Tobacco?

He said:

“Our results show an overall beneficial effect of e-cigarettes on a population, reducing smoking prevalence and smoking-related deaths”

He then went on to say:

“Our model shows that when e-cigarettes are available, the effect of ‘normalisation’, through for example, the visibility and familiarisation of e-cigarettes versus the ‘de-normalisation’ of cigarettes, means that fewer people start smoking and there is a higher rate of successful quit attempts–smokers quit earlier and, although many still relapse, there are significantly more former smokers.”

Back in 2012 the FDA encouraged the development and use of predictive models such as this, for companies who were intent on releasing ‘novel’ tobacco products onto the global market.

Is this another nod towards the fact that Big Tobacco companies are looking to launch more products into the vaping market in the near future? Is this the start of the true end of traditional tobacco cigarettes?

For now we can only speculate, although we can take this as another notch on the win belt of vaping.